Japanese Politics and Policy

Trevor Incerti
Visiting Assistant Professor of Modern and Contemporary Japanese Politics, Georgetown University
Assistant Professor of Political Economy, University of Amsterdam

Location: Car Barn Room 201
Time: Fridays 9:30am - 12:00pm

Course overview

This class is designed to introduce students to the key features and puzzles in contemporary Japanese politics, domestic policy, and foreign policy. We will examine: (1) the role of political institutions in shaping modern (postwar) Japanese economic development, political behavior, and political organization, (2) the various actors within the Japanese political system (e.g., voters, politicians, parties, factions, bureaucrats, and firms) and how political institutions guide or constrain their behavior, and (3) how the incentives provided by these institutions and actors have led to various policy outcomes across a number of topics such as: defense and security policy, economic and industrial policy, energy and climate change, gender equality, immigration, international trade, population aging, relations with neighbors, and welfare policy. In addition, the class will focus on research methods, especially evaluating and utilizing research designs and data sources.

Course requirements

This class includes readings that are technical in nature. In addition to internalizing the findings of the articles, students will be required to engage with the strengths and weaknesses of research designs and empirical findings.

Readings/books

There is no textbook for this course. All readings will be posted on Canvas or accessible through campus wifi/VPN.

Grading and course requirements

Overview

  • Class discussion participation (10%)
  • Debate participation (10%)
  • Sources evaluation presentation (10%)
  • Sources utilization presentation (10%)
  • Research presentation (20%)
  • Research paper (40%)

Attendance

Attendance is required in order to take part in practical exercises aimed at acquiring skills, such as presenting research and policy findings, providing constructive and evidence-based feedback, and developing research collaboration skills. This includes small group work such as debates based on the literature, analyzing the required readings and/or applying them to specific case studies, giving feedback on each other’s oral or written work, and giving prepared or unprepared presentations.

Participation

Students are expected to do the readings before class and to come to class prepared to discuss the readings. Because of the interactive nature of this course, attendance and participation is required. Please let me know if you will need to miss more than one course meeting.

Be respectful to your peers by being on time and silencing your cell phone and other notifications. You are encouraged to participate in class discussion and share your thoughts. In this field, there are no objectively “right” or “correct” ideas or opinions. Everything is interpreted and up for re-interpretation. The readings are based on the author’s interpretation of the observed reality of the world. Therefore, you should neither hesitate to question their interpretation nor to share your perspectives, even if you may feel like it differs from that of the author, me, or your peers. Remember that your perspective is informed by your unique experiences in the world and by sharing this perspective you will also be helping your peers and me see the world through a lens that is not available to us.

Sources Evaluation Presentation

Each student will choose two (2) readings from Week 2-8 and present on the sources of the readings (i.e., analyze the citations in the footnotes). Students may choose from required and recommended readings. Students will present on the distribution of types of sources (what percentage of the articles or chapters relies on interviews, surveys, survey experiment results, field experiment results, historical government records, contemporary government records, government data, NGO data, news reports, etc.) as well as the credibility of the sources. Students will also discuss potential biases in the sources, and what additional sources could be used to answer the research question. Students should also report their general reaction to their analysis. Were there any surprises? Did the authors ever say the source supported their argument but when you took a closer look it did not? Did following a footnote lead to any new interesting discoveries? The purpose of this presentation is to practice engaging actively with the sources you use for research.

Sources Utilization Presentation:

In this class, we will discuss and come across many different data sources and research methods including: interviews, surveys, survey experiments, field experiments, historical government records, contemporary government records, government and NGO data and quantitative analysis, news reports and text analysis.

In the context of your research project, present on (1) how you utilized one of these data sources and research methods and (2) how you would have liked to utilize one of these data sources and research methods. For the second component specifically, choose among the following:

  • Interviews: Identify 3-5 individuals you would have liked to interview and write 3-5 interview questions.

  • Survey: Identify the population(s) you would like to survey and write 5-7 survey questions.

  • Experiment: Identify the population(s) you would like to conduct an experiment on, as well as the treatment and outcome variable of interest.

  • Text Analysis: Identify the body of texts you would analyze, describe the analysis you would run, and identify the primary question you would attempt to answer.

If you would like to discuss an alternative method that your research topic would benefit from, please consult with me in advance.

The purpose of this presentation is to get feedback from the instructor and your peers to improve your research project before the presentation and final submission and think about how you might advance your research in the future in ways you may not have the time and resources to do for this class.

Research design paper

Please note that I want this assignment to be useful to you, and students are therefore strongly encouraged to tailor their papers to their own substantive interests and course of study. For example, policy-oriented students may consider writing a theoretically and empirically rigorous policy proposal, and others may consider a more theoretically driven academic question.

This essay is an opportunity to develop an empirically documented argument, using a well-constructed research design, that explores an aspect of Japanese politics or policy. Note that you are not expected to have conducted a conclusive empirical analysis. However, you are expected to have developed a theory, presented a hypothesis or hypotheses, and explored at least one potential empirical research method you could use to test these hypotheses.

The final essay should be a maximum 4,000 words and is worth 40% of the final grade. Please see the “Research Design Paper” guide for more grading criteria.

The deadline for the essay is 25 April. There is a 2% per day grade penalty for late submissions.

Grading criteria can be found in “Research Paper Guidelines” on Canvas. Feedback will be provided in the form of written comments within the paper itself.

Research presentation

On 25 April, students will present their research design papers to the class. Grading criteria can be found in “Presentation Guidelines” on Canvas.

Students not presenting are expected to attend and provide comments, questions, and feedback during after classmates’ presentations. Presentations should be roughly 10 minutes in length, with 10 minutes left for Q&A/discussion.

Other matters

Office hours and getting help

I am here to help you, both with course materials and assignments, as well as larger struggles or discussions about your discipline or program. You never owe me personal information about your health (mental or physical). You are always welcome to talk to me about things that you’re going through, though. If I can’t help you, I may know somebody who can. I will never judge you or think less of you for your struggles, whether professional or personal.

Social safety and inclusivity

We want students to be assured they have a positive environment and a safe basis for their studies. We hope you never experience an unsafe situation or undesirable behaviour, but should this occur there are different individuals and institutions you can turn to. See https://studentaffairs.georgetown.edu/studentoutreach/ for more information.

I hope to foster a sense of community in this classroom and consider this classroom to be a place where you will be treated with respect and where you will treat others with respect. If you have a documented disability and need any accommodations, please let me know. All members of this class are expected to contribute to a respectful, welcoming, and inclusive environment for every other member of the class. To do so, it is important that we approach every class discussion with an open mind and a willingness to appreciate different experiences and perspectives, even when they do not align with our own. Every member of this class should feel empowered to offer their opinions in class but should be respectful to every other member of this class while doing so. If you believe that this standard is not being upheld, please do not hesitate to speak candidly with me. I am committed to ensuring that every student feels heard in this classroom. Critiques of an intellectual nature are permitted, while ad hominem (personal) attacks are never permitted.

Academic integrity and AI

To ensure that you do not accidentally violate the University’s academic integrity policies, please review https://honorcouncil.georgetown.edu/honor-system-policies-2/honor-system-policies/, which apply in full.

Please note that, unless the course instructor has explicitly given permission to use AI in an assignment, any use of ChatGPT or other AI-tools to generate or edit (parts of) assignment texts or exams is considered to be fraud.

CLASS SCHEDULE

Introduction and Historical Context

January 10: Introduction, Class Overview, and Requirements

Required Readings:

Suggested Readings:

  • Read Chapter 1: “Why study Japanese political economy?” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • Incerti, Trevor, and Hikaru Yamagishi. “How Japan got the pandemic right–and wrong.” The Diplomat 14 (2022).

January 17: Historical Context

Required Readings:

(all readings on Canvas)

  • McClain, James L. “The Acquisition of Empire.” Japan: Modern History, W. W. Norton & Company (2002): 283-315. (Available on Canvas).
  • Read Chapter 2: “Japanese History and Culture,” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • McElwain, Kenneth Mori. “The Japanese Constitution.” In *The Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics” (2021): 22-40.

Recommended Readings:

  • Gordon, David. “The China-Japan War, 1931-1945.” The Journal of Military History, 70.1 (1996): 137-182.
  • Pyle, Kenneth. “The Yoshida Doctrine as Grand Strategy.” Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose, Public Affairs (2007): 241-277.
  • Dower, John. “Constitutional Democracy: GHQ Writes a New National Charter.” Embracing Defeat, W. W. Norton & Company (1999): 346-374.
  • Dower, John. “Constitutional Democracy: Japanizing the American Draft.” Embracing Defeat, W. W. Norton & Company (1999): 374-405.
  • “Victor’s Justice, Loser’s Justice.” Embracing Defeat, W. W. Norton & Company (1999): 443-485.
  • Lind, Jennifer. “Apologies in International Politics.” Security Studies 18 (2009): 517-556.

Share initial research ideas.

Domestic Politics and Policy

January 24: Political Institutions

Required Readings:

  • Read Chapter 4: “The Old Japanese Politics, 1955–1993,” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • Read Chapter 6: “Japan’s New Politics,” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • Goplerud, Max, and Daniel M. Smith. “Who answers for the government? Bureaucrats, ministers, and responsible parties.” American Journal of Political Science 67.4 (2023): 963-978.

Suggested Readings:

  • Catalinac, Amy, and Lucia Motolinia. “Geographically Targeted Spending in Mixed-Member Majoritarian Electoral Systems.” World Politics, 73.4 (2021): 668-711.
  • McElwain, Kenneth Mori. “Manipulating Electoral Rules to Manufacture Single‐Party Dominance.” American Journal of Political Science 52.1 (2008): 32-47.
  • Cox, Gary W., Frances M. Rosenbluth, and Michael F. Thies. “Electoral rules, career ambitions, and party structure: Comparing factions in Japan’s upper and lower houses.” American Journal of Political Science (2000): 115-122.

January 31: Political Parties and Political Behavior

Required Readings:

  • Read Chapter 2: Ramseyer, J. Mark and Frances McCall Rosenbluth. “Electoral Rules and Party Strategy” Japan’s Political Marketplace, pp. 16-37. Harvard University Press.
  • Eshima, Shusei, Yusaku Horiuchi, Shiro Kuriwaki, and Daniel M. Smith. “Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan.” SSRN (2023):1-30.
  • Kobayashi, Tetsuro, and Yu Ichifuji. “Tweets That Matter: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Japan.” Political Communication, 32.4 (2015):574-593.
  • Catalinac, Amy. “Positioning under alternative electoral systems: Evidence from Japanese candidate election manifestos.” American Political Science Review 112.1 (2018): 31-48.

Suggested Readings:

  • Ono, Yoshikuni. “Portfolio allocation as leadership strategy: Intraparty bargaining in Japan.” American Journal of Political Science 56.3 (2012): 553-567.
  • Nyblade, Benjamin, and Steven R. Reed. “Who cheats? Who loots? Political competition and corruption in Japan, 1947–1993.” American Journal of Political Science 52.4 (2008): 926-941.
  • Horiuchi, Yusaku, et al. “Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election.” Political Analysis, 26. 2 (2018): 190-209.
  • Smith, Daniel M. “The Consequences of Dynastic Politics for Representation.” Dynasties and Democracy: The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in Japan, Stanford University Press (2018): 239-257.
  • Smith, Daniel M. “Introduction: Dynasties in Democracies.” Dynasties and Democracy: The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in Japan, Stanford University Press (2018):1-35.
  • Kushida, Kenji E. and Phillip Y. Lipscy. “The Rise and Fall of the Democratic Party of Japan.” In Kenji E. Kushida and Phillip Y. Lipscy (eds.), Japan Under the DPJ: The Politics of Transition and Governance (2013): 3-42. Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

February 7: Domestic Political Economy

Required Readings:

  • Chapter 5: “Japan’s Postwar Political Economy,” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • Chapter 7: “Japan’s New Political Economy,” in Rosenbluth, Frances, and Michael Thies. Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic Restructuring. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2010).
  • Beason, Richard, and David Weinstein. “Growth, Economies of Scale, and Targeting in Japan,” The Review of Economics and Statistics. 78.2 (1996): 286–295.
  • Incerti, Trevor. “Who benefits from the revolving door? Evidence from Japan.” Center for Open Science (2024).

Suggested Readings:

  • Schachter, Hindy Lauer, & Akira Nakamura. “MITI and the Japanese Miracle Revisited: Reevaluation of the Administrative-Centered Government” [Review of “MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–1975,” by C. Johnson]. Public Administration Review, 71.4 (2011): 931–933.
  • Estevez-Abe, Margarita. Welfare and Capitalism in Postwar Japan. Cambridge University Press. (2008): 254–286.
  • Weinstein, David E., and Yishay Yafeh. “On the costs of a bank‐centered financial system: Evidence from the changing main bank relations in Japan.” The Journal of Finance 53.2 (1998): 635–672.
  • Incerti, Trevor, Sayumi Miyano, Diana Stanescu, and Hikaru Yamagishi. “Amakudata: A Dataset of Bureaucratic Revolving Door Hires.” Center for Open Science (2024).

February 14: Energy Policy

Required Readings:

  • Incerti, Trevor, and Phillip Y. Lipscy. “The Energy Politics of Japan.” In the Oxford Handbook of Energy Politics, Oxford University Press (2021).
  • Hughes, Llewelyn. “Energy Policy in Japan: Revisiting Radical Incrementalism.” In the Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics, Oxford University Press (2022): 376–394.
  • Lipscy, Phillip Y. “A Casualty of Political Transformation: The Politics of Energy Efficiency in the Japanese Transportation Sector.” Journal of East Asian Studies, 12 (2012): 409–439.
  • Samuels, Richard J. “Debating Energy Policy.” 3.11: Disaster and Change in Japan, Cornell University Press, (2013): 110–150.

Suggested Readings:

  • Incerti, Trevor, and Phillip Y. Lipscy. “The politics of energy and climate change in Japan under Abe.” Asian Survey 58.4 (2018): 607–634.
  • Explore the Japan page on Climate Action Tracker.

Activity

In-Class Debate: Renewable energy is the key to Japan’s energy security

Foreign Policy

February 21: Security Policy

Guest Speaker (TBD)

Required Readings:

  • National Security Strategy (2022).
  • Michishita, Narushige. “Japan’s Grand Strategy for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” In the Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics, Oxford University Press (2022): 492–513.
  • Smith, Sheila A. “The Constitution Revisited.” Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power, Harvard University Press (2019): 128–172.
  • Samuels, Richard J. “Meeting (and Making) Threats.” Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia, Cornell University Press (2007): 158–184.
  • Catalinac, Amy. “Identity Theory and Foreign Policy: Explaining Japan’s Responses to the 1991 Gulf War and 2003 U.S. War in Iraq.” Politics and Policy, 35.1 (2007): 58–100.

Suggested Readings:

  • Samuels, Richard J. “Baking the Pacifist Loaf.” Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia, Cornell University Press (2007): 38–60.

February 28: The US-Japan Alliance

Required Readings:

  • The United States-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement. (2024). White House.
  • Kishida’s speech to Joint Session of Congress. (2024).
  • Green, Michael J. “The United States.” Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzo, Columbia University Press (2022): 77–104.
  • Smith, Sheila A. “Relying on Borrowed Power.” Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power, Harvard University Press (2019): 173–219.
  • Pyle, Kenneth B. “A Peculiar Alliance.” Japan in the American Century, Harvard University Press, (2018): 207–248.

Suggested Readings:

  • Kapur, Nick. “Reformulating the US-Japan Alliance.” Japan at the Crossroads: Conflict and Compromise After Anpo Harvard University Press, 2018: 35–74.
  • Samuels, Richard J., and James L. Schoff. “Japan’s Nuclear Hedge: Beyond ‘Allergy’ and Breakout.” Political Science Quarterly, 130.3, 2015: 475–503.

Activity

In-Class Presentations: Evaluating Sources in Research

March 7: Spring Break

March 14: Japan-China and Japan-Korea Relations

Required Readings:

  • Green, Michael J. “China.” Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzo, Columbia University Press (2022): 45–76.
  • Kobayashi, Tetsuro, and Azusa Katagiri. “The ‘Rally ‘Round the Flag’ Effect in Territorial Disputes: Experimental Evidence from Japan-China Relations.” Journal of East Asian Studies, 18.3, (2018): 299–319.
  • Cha, Victor D. “Abandonment, Entrapment, and Neoclassical Realism: The United States, Japan, and Korea.” International Studies Quarterly, 44.2, 2000: 261–291.
  • Manyin, Mark. Council on Foreign Relations Discussion Paper. “Managing Japan-South Korea Tensions.” (2015).

Suggested Readings:

  • Iriye, Akira. “Chinese-Japanese Relations, 1945-1990.” China Quarterly 124 (1990): 624–638.
  • Incerti, Trevor, Daniel Mattingly, Frances Rosenbluth, Seiki Tanaka, and Jiahua Yue. “Hawkish Partisans: How Political Parties Shape Nationalist Conflicts in China and Japan.” British Journal of Political Science, 51.4 (2020): 1494–1515.
  • Heginbotham, Eric, and Richard J. Samuels. “Japan’s Dual Hedge.” Foreign Affairs, 81.5, (2002): 110–121.
  • Smith, Sheila A. “Diplomacy and Domestic Interests.” Intimate Rivals: Japanese Domestic Politics and a Rising China, Council on Foreign Relations (2016): 17–56.
  • Glosserman, Brad, and Scott A. Snyder. “Japan’s Identity Crisis.” The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States, Columbia University Press (2015): 22–59.
  • — . “Convergence and Alienation in Japan-South Korea Relations.” The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States, Columbia University Press (2015): 93–119.
  • Dudden, Alexis. “Apologies All Around.” Troubled Apologies Among Japan, Korea, and the United States, Columbia University Press (2008): 31–62.

March 21: International Political Economy - Trade Policy

Required Readings:

  • Davis, Christina. “Japanese Trade Policy.” In the Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics, Oxford University Press (2022): 556–580.
  • Davis, Christina L., and Yuki Shirato. “Firms, governments, and WTO adjudication: Japan’s selection of WTO disputes.” World Politics 59.2 (2007): 274–313.
  • Naoi, Megumi, and Ikuo Kume. “Explaining mass support for agricultural protectionism: Evidence from a survey experiment during the global recession.” International Organization 65.4 (2011): 771–795.

Suggested Readings:

  • Davis, Christina L. “International institutions and issue linkage: Building support for agricultural trade liberalization.” American Political Science Review 98.1 (2004): 153–169.
  • Solis, Mireya. “The Transformation of Japan as a Trading Nation.” Dilemmas of a Trading Nation: Japan and the United States in the Evolving Asia-Pacific Order, Brookings Press (2017): 128–137.
  • — . “Decisiveness/Inclusiveness Dilemmas in Japanese Trade Policy.” Dilemmas of a Trading Nation: Japan and the United States in the Evolving Asia-Pacific Order, Brookings Press (2017): 138–173.
  • — . “Reform/Subsidization Dilemmas in Japanese Trade Policy.” Dilemmas of a Trading Nation: Japan and the United States in the Evolving Asia-Pacific Order, Brookings Press (2017): 174–210.

Activity

In-Class Debate: Free trade benefited and continues to benefit Japan

Contemporary Challenges

March 28: Gender in Japan

Required Viewing:

Required Readings:

  • Kage, Rieko, Frances M. Rosenbluth, and Seiki Tanaka. “What explains low female political representation? Evidence from survey experiments in Japan.” Politics & Gender 15.2 (2019): 285–309.
  • Muroga, Kiho, and Charles Crabtree. “In Japan, men have complicated views about gender and equality.” The Japan Times (2020).
  • Ono, Yoshikuni, and Masahiro Yamada. “Do voters prefer gender stereotypic candidates? Evidence from a conjoint survey experiment in Japan.” Political Science Research and Methods 8.3 (2020): 477–492.

Suggested Readings:

  • Crabtree, Charles, & Kiho Muroga. “Measuring Gender Role Attitudes in Japan.” Socius (2021): 7.
  • Crabtree, Charles, Trevor Incerti, Rieko Kage, Frances Rosenbluth, and Hikaru Yamagishi. “Workers are willing to trade wages for better harassment reporting procedures.” Center for Open Science Working Paper (2024).

April 4: Aging in Japan

Required Viewing:

Required Readings:

  • McClean, Charles T. “Does the Underrepresentation of Young People in Political Institutions Matter for Social Spending?” Working Paper (2022).
  • Sundström, Aksel, et al. “When Elders Rule: Age Composition in Decision-Making and Legitimacy Perceptions.”
  • Oros, Andrew L. “The Rising Security Challenge of East Asia’s ‘Dual Graying’: Implications for U.S.-Led Security Architecture in the Indo-Pacific.” Asia Policy, 18.2 (2023): 75–100.
  • McClean, Charles T., and Yoshikuni Ono. “Too young to run? Voter evaluations of the age of candidates.” Political Behavior (2024): 1–23.

Suggested Readings:

  • Le, Tom Phuong. “Who Will Fight? The JSDF’s Demographic Crises.” Japan’s Aging Peace: Pacifism and Militarism in the Twenty-First Century, Columbia University Press (2021): 64–105.
  • Feyrer, James, Bruce Sacerdote, and Ariel Dora Stern. “Will the stork return to Europe and Japan? Understanding fertility within developed nations.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22.3 (2008): 3-22.

April 11: Immigration in Japan

Required Viewing:

Required Readings:

  • Strausz, Michael. “Immigration and Democracy in Japan.” In the Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics, Oxford University Press (2022): 471–489.
  • Chung, Erin Aeran. “Japan’s Model of Immigration Without Immigrants.” Current History, 118.809, (2019): 215–221.
  • Kage, Rieko, Frances M. Rosenbluth, and Seiki Tanaka. “The Fiscal politics of immigration: expert information and concerns over Fiscal Drain.” Political Communication 39.6 (2022): 826–844.

Suggested Readings:

  • Shipper, Apichai W. “Controlling Foreign Workers: Japan’s Foreign Worker Policy.” Fighting for Foreigners, Cornell University Press (2008).
  • Fraser, Nicholas AR, and Go Murakami. “The role of humanitarianism in shaping public attitudes toward refugees.” Political Psychology 43.2 (2022): 255-275.

Activity

In-Class Presentations: Utilizing Sources in Research

April 18: Easter Break

April 25: Research Project Presentations (Virtual)